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The Pareto distribution, contagion, and book sales

The Pareto probability distribution describes book sales along with a wide variety of observable phenomena. Ask any librarian: A small number of books account for the majority of items in circulation, while the vast majority of volumes remain on the shelves. So while the latest Grisham or King may be reviewed, you’re sure to find a Steven Vincent Benet or Anthony Burgess back in the stacks.

Zanybooks.com, my publisher, has 26 titles for sale on Kindle. Of 57 sales in the last nine months, one title represented 12, and half of the titles were left without a buyer. (Alas, this last group includes all the novels we’ve ever published using my name as the author. Our bestseller is Paula Morgan’s Side Out for Murder.)

Until now, our sales seem to have taken place completely at random. Our hope is that as the number of buyers increases, word will spread about our titles and our sales will begin to accelerate much like a wildfire, epidemic or welfare case.

In the 1950s, the US federal government introduced a program designed to provide financial assistance to families with dependent children. Each of the 50 states established its own independent program to distribute the money. State after state, the following three phenomena occurred: First, applications for welfare were filed at a more or less constant rate. As welfare recipients talked about the program among their friends and neighbors, the number of applications began to increase at an ever-increasing rate. Eventually, recipient organizations sprang up. They started active recruitment programs among those eligible for welfare and the number of applications jumped once again. Among epidemiologists, these three stages are known as zero-order, first-order, and second-order contagion.

Most first-time authors have a similar experience, whether they are self-published or in the hands of a major publisher. First, copies are sold more or less at random. If the book finds its way into the hands of someone who likes it and is talkative about what they like, sales will begin to pick up. Unfortunately, only 1 in 500 Amazon readers are likely to write a review, so book review by a professional reviewer is in high demand. With one or two positive reviews, sales will accelerate even more. The real excitement will come only when publishers start asking why they haven’t gotten a book review yet from X or Oprah drops in from the skies to back it up.

Unfortunately (this is my third “ouch” and I’m sorry), newspapers have begun to drastically reduce the number of books they review. Many have removed their review section entirely. The online reviewer is crucial to the success or failure of a book.

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