This Fantasy Baseball Post Will Make You A Man

We’re about to separate the men from the boys, fantasy baseball style.

As we approach the 25% mark in fantasy baseball, it’s important to evaluate your team so you can do what it takes to take home the gold.

But what is a reasonable point deficit? At this point in the season, can you come back from being 10 points down? 20 points? 30 points? (Listen, if you’re more than 30 points down, just close the lid of your laptop, because you’re dunzo.)

Below is the point breakdown for one of the leagues I play in, a 15 7×7 team, which means there are a lot of points up for grabs:

1. Retro ’85 by G-Brett, 142

2. Frame Scrot-hoops 141

3. San Diego Phishsanwiches, 141

4. Charlotte Chewable Chews, 138

5. Elma Bears, 114

6. Bash Brothers, 112

7. touch base cleaning, 111

8. Vandelay Industries, 110.5

9. Balls struck, 109

10. A1 Swift Lowry, 109

11. Mediocre stars, 109

12. Oh My God, 105.5

13. Uh-well-state baseball, 89

14. Williamson’s Wolverines, 79

15. Phillies Bro Code, 68.5

I’m going to argue that only the top 4 teams play for 1st place. Teams 5-11 are playing for second place (more on that later). Team 12 plays, at most, for 5th place. And teams 13-15 will battle to see who stays out of the basement.

I realize if you find your team in a similar position to those in positions 5-12, you’re mad at me, because you still have first place on your mind. That’s good (and I agree with the controversial posts). Everyone respects a fighter. But there’s no point in moving on, fueled by the hopes and dreams of unicorns.

Let reality sink in. I will systematically defeat your dreams with my sword of Logic, Reality and Plain Obviousness (Dexterity +3).

There is a minimum of 24 points (138 minus 114) that separates the first tier teams from the second tier teams. While 24 points is absolutely a shortfall that can be overcome, those second-tier teams don’t have a realistic chance of getting first place. I’ll explain.

The beauty of Roto is that the stakes are high and they all need to be taken together.

One of the second tier teams (5th to 11th place) will definitely make a run. Probably two of them will. This means those teams will be competing back and forth for points. The lords of fantasy give and they take away.

Likewise, at least one team at the top level will make a race. Last year our winner finished with 170 points, which means there is still room for the top finishers to pull away. The rich get richer, as they say.

Not only do you need to make a strong run, but top-tier teams need to stack up and come back at you. See #2 above. This is almost completely out of your hands. This cannot be overstated either.

We assume those second-tier teams are underperforming and the best is yet to come. It is quite possible that around 110 points is a bit over their head and they will break down soon enough.

Some of you are reading this thinking, “So you’re saying there’s a chance.” Making rash moves to achieve a goal that you really have little mathematical chance of achieving is foolish. Doing it at the expense of future seasons is dumber. (The decision to pursue a longshot in a goalkeeping league may cripple your roster for years to come.)

Maybe some things will work out for you. Maybe many things will work out for you!

But a second-tier team needs to warm up and stay warm for the rest of the season. They need the other second-tier teams to stay tepid, at best. They need the top tier teams to tank, all of them. We haven’t even mentioned the health of his team.

These are too many variables that are out of your control. A hopeful, but reasonable, outcome would be for the league to have a couple of teams take a nosedive, while one team breaks away from the mediocrity pack to land in second place. A first place is probably an unreasonable result.

The reason I said this post would make a man out of him is that it gives us all a chance to be a man, face the facts, and still make some moves that will skyrocket him up the rankings.

Fantasy baseball is a marathon, not a sprint, so there are still plenty of opportunities to make the kind of run that makes the ladies swoon, even if it’s a million to one shot in the first place. Jumping from 12 to 6 is still admirable. A battle for the 4th can be epic. I remember last year we had a big fight between 3 guys, fighting to stay out of the cellar. There might be some epic games within the game that make Roto-style fantasy baseball so awesome.

So cheer up. Here are some things you can do:

Target a competitor. Put a target on his side and run to jump on him. Turn a friend into a friend. A year after I won the title, another owner posted a comment on the message boards that my victory was “nothing but luck.” Ooh, it was on. I achieved a goal that year after year, his was the team that went down.

Take one owner at a time. Determine how many owners are between you and where you want to be. Make adjustments to gradually improve your team, allowing you to beat them one at a time. This keeps you focused on a task and gives you a constant, defined, and achievable sense of accomplishment.

be devious Do the spoiler. Don’t check the season; instead, make tactical trades with teams that can hurt your competitors. You can help yourself, to a degree, by helping the teams that have the best chance of taking points away from their closest competitors.

Build a team to root for. This is doubly important in goalkeeper leagues. Set a solid goal for advancement, resign yourself that the top level is out of the question, and work to create a list of guys you’d like to root for in the years to come. Build a team of solid goalkeepers that you will enjoy cheering on next season.

Fight until the end. A man falls swinging. You owe it to your leaguemates to keep competing.

Go all out! You are a dangerous man, damn it! Ignore all my advice, ditch the caution, dismiss the facts, boot up and play first, despite the promptings that the rest of us know as “reality.” What the hell, right? It’s fake baseball and you’re the one who ultimately has to live with your choices.

I’m at a loss for words for this post and I figure you’re already mad at me for smashing your first place hopes this season, so I’m running. See “How to Finish Like a Champion When You Drafted Like a Dummy” for detailed, step-by-step information on how to determine which categories to aim for in order to make a career.