Past NFL Draft Picks: Hit or Miss
Past NFL Draft Picks: Hit or Miss
As much as the Mel Kipers of the world try to convince us otherwise, the NFL Draft is a very inexact science. Do you need proof? Just look at some of the notable Draft Day hits and misses from the past decade. And these are not dark round rooms; each player listed below was selected in the top 10 picks in the first round.
1995 draft
Hit: 3. Houston Oilers – Steve McNair, quarterback, Alcorn State
“Air” McNair has been the foundation of the Oilers/Titans franchise and was named co-MVP in 2003. He also led the Titans to Super Bowl XXXIV, commanding one of the greatest last-second plays in Super Bowl history. , just to come. a yard out against the Rams.
Miss: 1. Cincinnati Bengals – Ki-Jana Carter, RB, Penn State
He missed his entire rookie year after suffering a knee injury in preseason. He rushed for just 1,144 yards and 20 touchdowns in 57 games with the Bengals, Redskins and Saints.
1996 draft
Hit: 4. Baltimore Ravens – Jonathan Ogden, LT, UCLA
Under the coaching of Ozzie Newsome, the Ravens selected the team’s two mainstays in 1996, taking Ogden at No. 4 and then Miami linebacker Ray Lewis at No. 26 overall.
Misses: 6. St. Louis Rams – Lawrence Phillips, RB, Nebraska
In 35 games with the Rams, Dolphins and 49ers, Phillips rushed for 1,453 yards, with 3.4 yards per carry and 14 touchdowns. Outside the NFL since 1999, Phillips has had successful seasons in the CFL and NFL Europe.
1997 draft
Hit: 1. St. Louis Rams – Orlando Pace, LT, Ohio State
He won Super Bowl XXXIV and was an integral part of three MVP Awards (Kurt Warner in ’99 and ’01, Marshall Faulk in ’00).
Miss: 9. Arizona Cardinals – Tommy Knight, BC, Iowa
In 73 games, Knight amassed just three interceptions and 2.5 sacks with the Cardinals, Ravens and Rams.
1998 draft
Hit: 1. Indianapolis Colts – Peyton Manning, QB, Tennessee
Named MVP in 2004 and co-MVP in 2003, Manning now holds the NFL single-season records for touchdown passes (49) and passer rating (121.1) after a brilliant 2004 season.
Miss: 2. San Diego Chargers – Ryan Leaf, QB, Washington State
Leaf played in 25 games with the Chargers, Cowboys and Seahawks, finishing his career with 3,666 passing yards, 48.8 completion percentage, 14 touchdowns, 36 interceptions and a 50.0 passer rating.
1999 draft
Hit: 2. Philadelphia Eagle – Donovan McNabb, quarterback, Syracuse
He was booed on draft day by Philadelphia fans who wanted the Eagles to draft running back Ricky Williams from Texas. Since then, he has led the Eagles to four straight NFC Championship Games and Super Bowl XXXIX last year.
Miss: 3. Cincinnati Bengals – Akili Smith, QB, Oregon
Drafted before UFC quarterback Daunte Culpepper (No.11). In 22 games, Smith passed for 2,212 yards, five touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. He will have another shot at the NFL after signing with Tampa Bay in
February. He spent time this spring playing in NFL Europe.
2000 draft
Hit: 5. Baltimore Ravens – Jamel Lewis, RB, Tennessee
In 2003, Lewis joined OJ Simpson, Eric Dickerson, Barry Sanders and Terrell Davis as the fifth running back in NFL history to rush for 2,000 yards in a single season.
Miss: 1. Cleveland Browns – Courtney Brown, DE, Penn State
After drafting Kentucky quarterback Tim Couch with the first overall pick in ’99, the Browns selected Brown No. 1 in ’00. No
lives up to his last name (Paul, Jim, etc.) in Cleveland, recording 17 sacks in 47 games over 5 seasons. He is now a member of the Denver Broncos.
2001 draft
Hit: 5. San Diego Chargers – LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, TCU
The Chargers passed up the opportunity to draft Viginia
Tech quarterback Michael Vick, negotiating with Atlanta to acquire Tomlinson, quarterback Drew Brees and kick returner Tim Dwight. In just 4 seasons, LT has 5,899 rushing yards, 2,022 receiving yards, and 60 total touchdowns.
Miss: 3. Cleveland Browns – Gerard Warren, DT, Florida
Although Warren produced 16.5 sacks in 60 games over four seasons, he wasn’t worth the price (or the third overall pick) and followed the rest of the Browns’ defensive front to Denver this offseason.
2002 project
Hit: 2. Carolina Panthers – Julius Peppers, DE, North Carolina
In just 44 games over 3 seasons, Peppers has 30 sacks, 12 forced fumbles, three interceptions and two defensive touchdowns. He also helped lead the Panthers to Super Bowl XXXVIII.
Miss: 6. Kansas City Chiefs – Ryan Sims, DT, North Carolina
Peppers’ college teammate was the first defensive tackle selected, ahead of the Tennessee duo of John Henderson (No. 9) and Albert Haynesworth (No. 15). He has a record 5 sacks in 37 games.
2003 project
Hit: 10. Baltimore Ravens – Terrell Suggs, LB, Arizona State
A classic case of excessive analysis of measurables instead of game tape. Suggs was labeled a ‘tweener’ and fell to the Ravens, where he has 22.5 sacks and 7 forced fumbles in 32 games over two seasons.
Miss: 6. New Orleans Saints – Johnathan Sullivan, DT, Georgia
In 21 games over two seasons, Sullivan has just 1.5 sacks and one forced fumble for the inconsistent Saints.
2004 project
Hit: 10. Houston Texans – Dunta Robinson, BC, South Carolina
A tremendous playmaker, Robinson had six interceptions for 146 yards (24.3 yards per return) and three sacks in his rookie season.
Miss: 6. Cleveland Browns – Kellen Winslow II, TE, Miami
He played two games as a rookie before breaking his leg. He was involved in a motorcycle accident in May, jeopardizing his 2005 season, and possibly his career.